Trust the times from USCIS Web site. The times on the receipt notice are little more reliable than random numbers. There are several reasons for this. First, these numbers are stored somewhere in USCIS' computer system and don't get updated all that often. Second, the processing time for a certain form can sometimes vary greatly with a number of factors. However, the receipt notice will only have room for one number.
Examples for this second factor are H-1B petitions (that can be accelerated or halted by factors such as premium processing and the quota) and I-130. Family-based I-130 petitions are used for immediate relatives as well as for quota-based family categories. USCIS will assign a very low priority to quota-based cases because the quota means that a long processing time does not further hurt the applicant, but process immediate relatives with high priority because an immediate relative would be eligible to immigrate immediately.
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